2024 Toyota/Save Mart 350 odds, lineup, prediction, time: Model reveals surprising NASCAR at Sonoma picks
SportsLine simulated the 2024 Toyota/Save Mart 350 10,000 times and revealed its NASCAR Cup Series picks for the Sonoma road course The 2024 Toyota/Save Mart 350 will be held at Sonoma Raceway, with the green flag set to drop at 3:30 p.m. ET. This is the second road race on the NASCAR schedule this season. William Byron, who has won three times in 2024, is considered a significant contender with three wins and a 17-2 overall. Martin Truex Jr. is the 5-1 favorite at Sonom, followed by Christopher Bell and Kyle Larson at 15-2. SportsLine's proven projection model has predicted 18 winners since 2021, including nine last year and three in the first seven races this season, according to its prediction model.
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The 2024 Toyota/Save Mart 350 will be held at Sonoma Raceway on Sunday with the green flag scheduled to drop at 3:30 p.m. ET. It is the second road race on the NASCAR schedule this season and William Byron will hope to continue proving that he is coming into his own as a road racer. Byron won at Circuit of the Americas in March and scored a win (Watkins Glen) and a runner-up (Charlotte Roval) finish in the final two road races of the 2023 season.
Byron already has three wins in 2024 but he's been outside the top 10 in three of his last five starts and he's listed at 17-2 in the NASCAR at Sonoma odds. Martin Truex Jr. has won four times at Sonoma and he's the 5-1 favorite in the 2024 Toyota/Save Mart 350 odds, followed by Christopher Bell and Kyle Larson at 15-2. Before making any 2024 NASCAR at Sonoma predictions, be sure to see the latest 2024 Toyota/Save Mart 350 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model .
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
McClure's model was red-hot in 2023, nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1) as well as his win in New Hampshire (11-2), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin's triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson's wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). The model correctly predicted winners in two of the playoff races as well, with Ryan Blaney scoring a 12-1 payout at Talladega and Larson winning at 9-2 in Las Vegas.
Then it called its first winner of the 2024 season with Larson in Las Vegas for a 21-5 payout and predicted Hamlin's wins in Bristol at 5-1 and Richmond at 17-4. It also impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 18 winners since 2021, including nine last year and three in the first seven races this season. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.
Now, the model simulated the 2024 Toyota/Save Mart 350 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Sonoma leaderboard .
For the 2024 Toyota/Save Mart 350, the model is high on Denny Hamlin, even though he's a 20-1 longshot in the latest 2024 NASCAR at Sonoma odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The 43-year-old has three wins this season and he's been to victory lane 54 times in his NASCAR Cup Series career. However, he's still chasing the championship that has eluded him over the last 18 seasons as a full-time driver in NASCAR's top circuit.
Hamlin only has one career win on a road course but he's improved as a road racer later in his career. Last year, he won the pole at Sonoma and led 33 laps before a crash led to a 36th-place finish and he was top 10 there in five of the six Cup races he'd run at Sonoma before that. Hamlin qualified eighth, led three laps, and finished a respectable 14th at Circuit of the Americas earlier this season.
Another massive shocker: Christopher Bell, one of the top Vegas favorites at 15-2, barely cracks the top 10. There are far better values in the 2024 Toyota/Save Mart 350 starting lineup. Bell has already mathematically guaranteed himself a spot in the postseason with two victories and he's currently eighth in the NASCAR standings.
He's also a capable road racer with two victories and top 10s in half of his career NASCAR Cup Series starts on road courses. However, his best finish in three career starts at Sonoma Raceway was ninth last season and he was outside the top 20 the previous two years. He hasn't led a lap in those three races and the model predicts that he won't be a serious threat on Sunday either. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine .
The model is also targeting three other drivers with 2024 Toyota/Save Mart 350 odds of 14-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine .
So who wins the Toyota/Save Mart 350 2024 at Sonoma, and which longshots are a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 NASCAR at Sonoma odds below, then .
See full NASCAR at Sonoma picks at SportsLine
Martin Truex Jr. 5-1 Christopher Bell 15-2 Kyle Larson 15-2 Ty Gibbs 17-2 William Byron 17-2 Chase Elliott 9-1 Tyler Reddick 19-2 Chris Buescher 14-1 A.J. Allmendinger 14-1 Michael McDowell 15-1 Austin Cindric 20-1 Denny Hamlin 20-1 Ross Chastain 25-1 Ryan Blaney 25-1 Kyle Busch 25-1 Daniel Suarez 25-1 Will Brown 28-1 Joey Logano 40-1 Alex Bowman 50-1 Cam Waters 50-1 Brad Keselowski 75-1 Todd Gilliland 100-1 Justin Haley 100-1 Carson Hocevar 100-1 Chase Briscoe 100-1 Bubba Wallace 250-1 Austin Dillon 400-1 John Hunter Nemechek 500-1 Noah Gragson 500-1 Corey Lajoie 500-1 Ryan Preece 750-1 Erik Jones 750-1 Zane Smith 750-1 Josh Berry 750-1 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1000-1 Daniel Hemric 1000-1 Harrison Burton 1000-1 Kaz Grala 1000-1
Konular: Motorsports, NASCAR